“$135k before the pumpkin spice is in play.“ That was my note from March 2025. I don’t feel bad about the call, but transparently, I expected us to tap $150k before the year ended. Instead, we saw an ATH of $126k followed by a grind. My focus is now shifting into 2026, and the nuance is everything.

The primary question Bitcoin is answering right now is: Are we entering a standard year-long bear market, or is Bitcoin finally breaking out of its four-year cycle?

The New Macro Reality

Bitcoin is now deeply integrated into broader markets. I believe internal influences (like the halving) are now secondary to global macro liquidity. We might hate the Fed, CPI, and Wall Street ETFs, but pretending they don’t dictate price action is a losing game.

Key Market Factors for 2026

• Liquidity (The “Not-QE” QE): The Fed is back in buying mode for the first time since 2022, hovering around $40B/month. I expect this to ramp up in 2026 as the “debt spiral” requires more intervention.

• The “Trump Fed” & Rates: Markets predict two more cuts, but with a new Fed Commissioner likely aligned with the Trump administration, two seems conservative. They must lower rates without nuking the bond market—a delicate tightrope.

• OG Absorption: 2025 was defined by “Long-Term Holders” (LTHs) taking profits. $100k was a massive psychological wall; when OGs dumped 80k BTC, the price stumbled. The good news? The $100k range is now “normalized.” I expect OG selling to dry up significantly in 2026.

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• The “Cycle Believers”: A class of sellers emerged after the October liquidations, convinced we are headed to $30k because “that’s what the cycle does.” I think the market proves them wrong and leaves them sidelined as “bitter bears”—the 2026 version of the 2022 “$10k believers.”

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• Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs): They aren’t for everyone, but they are a net win. They stole the “hype” from shitcoins and funneled it into BTC. In 2026, the big ones will continue to scale. Some will get rekt, but they provide a floor that didn’t exist in previous cycles.

• Institutional Dominance: 2025 was a 50/50 split between retail and institutions. I expect 2026 to shift heavily toward institutional adoption as ETFs become a staple in pension funds and corporate balance sheets.

• NVDA and GOLD stole our Thunder. If you are a basketball fan, it feels like Gold is the Bad Boy Pistons and Bitcoin is MJ. Once we break through we’ll hit legendary status.

The Verdict: Breaking the Cycle

Bitcoin hit $126k in 2025 despite a “Fed vs. Trump” war, massive OG selling, and liquidity headwinds. With the external market looking more positive for 2026, I am targeting a new ATH of ~$145k by year end.

Barring a Black Swan, 2026 will be the year we officially break the “four-year cycle” and transition into a sustained Supercycle (cycle broken, though not the giant green candles) on the back of a more bullish macro setup and Bitcoin cycle fear passing.

In sportsball term, Jordan just lost to the Pistons and got beat up real good, but the next few years turned out ok.

TLDR: 2026 is green, the cycle is dead, long live the Supercycle.