SpaceX will get off the ground – but a descent from a silly valuation must follow SpaceX is poised for a market debut with a valuation that is nearly 100 times its 2025 revenues, a figure largely driven by the speculative potential of its AI venture, xAI. Despite market-leading technologies like Starlink and reusable rockets, established divisions do not justify the company’s astronomical market capitalization. However, the “Musk factor,” strong backing from Wall Street, and the inclusion in stock market indices suggest the initial public offering may succeed, though a future correction to a more grounded valuation is anticipated.

• SpaceX’s IPO valuation is almost 100 times its 2025 revenues, driven by potential future ventures.
• Market-leading divisions like Starlink and rocket technology do not fully support the $1.77tn valuation.
• The artificial intelligence operation xAI is a key driver of the high valuation, with most IPO funds allocated to it.
• Despite analyst concerns about overvaluation, the “Musk factor” and strong Wall Street support are expected to buoy the IPO.
• Forced buying by passive tracker funds, which must invest in companies added to indices, will also contribute to demand.
• A future descent to a more realistic valuation is predicted by some analysts.