Ebola spread in central Africa could match 2014 record outbreak, US health officials say US health officials’ computer models suggest Central Africa’s Ebola outbreak could rival the 2014-2016 West Africa epidemic, with potential for over 20,000 cases depending on isolation speed. While the modeling indicates a dangerous trajectory if interventions are insufficient, experts caution that precise predictions are difficult due to limited data. The outbreak’s response is further complicated by armed conflict and attacks, hindering efforts to identify and isolate infected individuals.

• US health officials’ computer models indicate Central Africa’s Ebola outbreak could reach the scale of the 2014-2016 West Africa outbreak, potentially exceeding 20,000 cases.
• The spread’s severity depends on the speed of isolating infected individuals; lower isolation rates could lead to a larger outbreak.
• Experts caution that outbreak predictions are difficult with limited data, and the current situation follows a ‘dangerous trajectory’ without stronger interventions.
• The outbreak response is complicated by armed conflict and attacks, displacing populations and hindering containment efforts.
• There are no specific treatments or vaccines for the Bundibugyo virus causing the current outbreak, which is often fatal.
• The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global health emergency in May.