• Gold Accumulation - Parallels Between Russia’s Pre-War Strategy and China’s Preparation Amid Tensions with the US
  • Introduction
  • Russia’s Gold Accumulation: From 2010 to Pre-War (2022)
  • China’s Current Accumulation: Parallels with Russia
  • China-US Tensions: The Embargo on Microchips for AI as a Catalyst
  • Correlation with a Possible Annexation of Taiwan: Recognizing the Possibility
  • | Aspect | Russia (2010-2022) VS China (2023-2025) | Correlation with Taiwan/Chip Embargo |
  • Conclusion

§Gold Accumulation - Parallels Between Russia’s Pre-War Strategy and China’s Preparation Amid Tensions with the US

§Introduction

In a context of growing geopolitical uncertainties, the accumulation of gold by nations like Russia and China stands out as a strategic measure to strengthen reserves and mitigate economic risks. Russia, starting in 2010, adopted an aggressive policy of gold acquisition, which proved vital for dealing with Western sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Today, China follows a similar pattern, increasing its reserves amid disputes with the United States, including embargos on advanced microchips for artificial intelligence (AI) and tensions over Taiwan. Based on the opinion that these Chinese purchases may eventually represent preparation for an annexation of Taiwan – not implying an imminent conflict, but recognizing this possibility as part of a long-term resilience strategy – this article explores correlations, motivations, and implications, grounded in recent data up to October 2025.

§Russia’s Gold Accumulation: From 2010 to Pre-War (2022)

Russia began a systematic accumulation of gold in the 2010s, motivated by Western sanctions following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Between 2010 and 2022, reserves grew from about 500 tons to over 2,300 tons, with gold representing up to 21.5% of the country’s total reserves. This strategy, promoted by President Vladimir Putin, aimed at “de-dollarization,” reducing dependence on assets in dollars, euros, and pounds sterling, which accounted for half of the reserves before the war.

With an annual domestic production of about 330 tons, Russia prioritized gold as a “sanction-proof” asset, unable to be frozen by Western powers. The value of Russian gold reserves increased by 72% (or US$ 96 billion) since the beginning of 2022, helping the economy resist the freezing of foreign assets during the conflict in Ukraine. This pre-war financial preparation demonstrated how gold can serve as a “war chest” in scenarios of economic isolation.

§China’s Current Accumulation: Parallels with Russia

Since 2023, China has been the largest buyer of gold among central banks, extending a sequence of monthly purchases for at least 11 months until August 2025. Official reserves reached 74.02 million ounces (about 2,300 tons) at the end of August, valued at over US$ 208 billion, with an increase of 60,000 ounces in that month alone. Estimates suggest that, including undeclared holdings, total reserves may exceed 31,000 tons, driven by imports, domestic mining (370-375 tons annually), and a de-dollarization strategy.

This accumulation echoes the Russian one, aiming to diversify reserves of over US$ 3 trillion in dollars and challenge the hegemony of the American dollar. In the BRICS context, gold is seen as the basis for an alternative monetary system, with global central purchases reaching 415 tons in the first half of 2025. Record gold prices (above US$ 3,500/ounce) benefit this strategy, driven by geopolitical uncertainties.

§China-US Tensions: The Embargo on Microchips for AI as a Catalyst

Tensions between China and the US escalated in 2025, with embargos on advanced microchips for AI at the epicenter. The US expanded export controls since 2019, including an AI diffusion rule in January 2025, to limit Chinese access to cutting-edge technologies from companies like Nvidia and AMD. In August, Nvidia and AMD agreed to pay 15% of their Chinese revenues to the US government to maintain limited exports, while China intensified port inspections and banned products like those from Micron in data centers.

These restrictions aim to curb China’s progress in military and economic AI, with additional tariffs of up to 100% threatened in October 2025. China responded with controls on exports of rare earths, essential for chips, aggravating economic decoupling. This scenario reinforces the need for de-dollarization, with gold acting as a hedge against potential sanctions, similar to Russia’s pre-2022 preparation.

§Correlation with a Possible Annexation of Taiwan: Recognizing the Possibility

Considering the perspective that China’s gold accumulation may be strategic preparation for an eventual annexation of Taiwan – not suggesting a conflict “tomorrow,” but highlighting this possibility in a horizon of geopolitical risks – there are notable parallels with Russia’s pre-Ukraine strategy. Taiwan, which produces 60% of global semiconductors, is central to the tensions, with Chinese military exercises in 2025 and US alerts about a potential conflict. An invasion could trigger massive sanctions, freezing dollar assets, making gold crucial for maintaining trade via BRICS and stabilizing the economy.

Although analyses indicate that an invasion in 2025 is unlikely – with estimated probabilities around 7%, prioritizing intimidation over direct action due to economic costs, nuclear risks, and insufficient preparation of the People’s Liberation Army – the possibility cannot be dismissed. The accumulation of gold, in this context, can be seen as a preventive measure for escalation scenarios, echoing how Russia used gold to navigate post-2014 sanctions and during the war. This view suggests that, even without immediate intent, gold strengthens Chinese resilience for eventual confrontations.

§| Aspect | Russia (2010-2022) VS China (2023-2025) | Correlation with Taiwan/Chip Embargo |

| Final Reserves | ~2,300 tons | ~2,300 tons (official; possibly more) | Gold as a hedge against sanctions in potential conflict or technological embargos. | | Motivation | De-dollarization post-Crimea | Diversification in US tensions | Preparation for financial isolation, including possibility of Taiwan annexation. | | Geopolitical Context | Western sanctions | AI chip embargos and threats over Taiwan | BRICS alliance; gold as a tool for non-imminent escalation scenarios. | | Probability of Link to Conflict | High (proved useful post-2022) | Recognized possibility (low in 2025, but strategic) | Indicates precaution for long-term risks, without implying immediate action. |

§Conclusion

Russia’s gold accumulation strategy since 2010 served as a practical lesson for China, which now strengthens its reserves in response to AI chip embargos and tensions over Taiwan. Incorporating the view that this may be preparation for an eventual annexation – recognizing the possibility without suggesting imminence – gold emerges as a key asset for nations challenging Western dominance. In BRICS, this trend accelerates de-dollarization, potentially reshaping the global financial system. For observers, monitoring these movements is essential, balancing real risks with factual analyses.