Armenia’s normalization of relations with Turkey offers potential trade and access but carries the risk of pulling the South Caucasus into a deeper East-West clash. While Turkey seeks to strengthen its regional role through open borders and economic links, it approaches the normalization cautiously to avoid damaging its pragmatic relationship with Russia. Yerevan’s move away from Russia towards Western influence is viewed as a risky gamble, as the West may not offer concrete security guarantees.

• Normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations is a key process in the South Caucasus, with implications for Armenia’s foreign policy direction.
• Armenia traditionally relied on Russia for security, but its new authorities are seeking diversification and greater independence by moving towards Western centers of influence.
• Turkey sees normalization as part of a broader regional strategy to strengthen its role, expand transport and economic links, while carefully managing its relationship with Russia.
• The process has accelerated since the 2020 Karabakh war, with special representatives appointed and practical steps taken towards opening borders and resuming transport links.
• Armenia increasingly blames Moscow for its troubles following the Karabakh defeat, which facilitates a pivot towards closer ties with the EU, NATO, and Turkey.
• The key question is whether Armenia is receiving real security guarantees in return for its Western pivot, or just diplomatic encouragement.
• Russia does not oppose normalization if it leads to regional stability and open communications, but is concerned if it’s used to push Russia out or turn Armenia into a platform for Western pressure.
• Armenia faces a choice between careful normalization with Turkey while preserving ties with Russia, or an accelerated Western turn that could turn Armenia into a new front in the West-Russia confrontation.