The FIFA World Cup, starting on June 11, has already attracted attention for various reasons. One of them is the security situation in Mexico, which will host matches alongside the USA and Canada. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that the neighboring country is actually run not by official authorities, but by drug cartels. This is a clear exaggeration. However, it is difficult to argue with the fact that the security situation in Mexico is extremely dire. Drug cartels operate in regions where matches will be held. The experience of previous major sporting events in troubled countries like South Africa and Brazil shows that law enforcement agencies can mobilize resources and ensure the safety of tourists in 'sterile zones.' However, there are no guarantees that the long-term consequences will be positive. This article by 'Novaya Gazeta Europe' discusses the measures taken by the Mexican authorities under the unprecedented 'Plan Kukulkan' and the concerns of local human rights defenders. View of the Azteca Stadium in Mexico City, June 3, 2026. The opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup between Mexico and South Africa will take place here on June 11. Photo: Tomas Perez / EPA. Enthusiasm and Anxiety For the first time in history, the FIFA World Cup will be held in three countries simultaneously: the USA, Canada, and Mexico. The honor of hosting the opening match falls to the latter: on June 11, the tournament's opening whistle will sound at the capital's Azteca Stadium. In total, Mexico will host 13 out of 104 matches. Besides Mexico City, games will also be held in two other cities: Guadalajara (Jalisco state) and Monterrey (Nuevo León state). These are, respectively, the first, second, and third largest metropolitan areas in the country by population. Conservative estimates suggest that Mexico City alone will be visited by about 3 million tourists during the month of the tournament (other estimates range up to 5.5 million people). For Mexicans, this is a unique opportunity to showcase themselves to the world. Against this backdrop, the question has become extremely acute in recent weeks and months: is the country ready? An Ipsos survey showed that although the majority of residents support the tournament and see it as 'an opportunity to show the best of the country,' 79% are concerned about petty crime – robberies and assaults, 74% – organized crime, and 72% – possible fraud against tourists. 43% of respondents are almost or not at all confident that adequate conditions will be ensured during the championship, and only 11% believe that Mexico is 'very well prepared' for the tournament. 'The World Cup in Mexico is accompanied by two emotions simultaneously: on the one hand, enthusiasm, and on the other, doubts about the country's ability to withstand it,' summarized the publication Expansion. The anxiety is not unfounded. Some experts – for example, from the research organization ACLED – rank the country fourth among the most dangerous in the world (after Palestine, Myanmar, and Syria). It earned this ranking based on four parameters: the level of violent deaths, the geographical spread of violence, danger to the civilian population, and the fragmentation of armed groups. Mexico ranks second and third globally in the latter two categories, respectively. 'Predictability, Not Chaos' Official data indicates a decrease in intentional homicides: in 2025, there were nearly 20.7 thousand, a 19.8% decrease from the previous year. This trend continued in the first quarter of 2026. President Claudia Sheinbaum presents these figures as evidence of her successful security strategy. However, experts are convinced that the authorities are manipulating statistics in various ways: for example, many murders are reclassified as 'other crimes against life.' 'There is a significant gap between official reports indicating a decrease in crime and the constant sense of insecurity experienced by the population,' states Mexican security expert Manuel Samudio. A toppled statue of a footballer after vandalism by participants of the National Coordination Committee of Education Workers (CNTE) during protests in Mexico City, Mexico, June 2, 2026. Photo: Madla Hartz / EPA. According to Mexican human rights defender Rafael Barajas Valeszuela, head of the Civil Observatory of Tulum, the perception of the security situation in the country (or, more accurately, its absence) is primarily due to political reasons. 'In recent years, power at the federal, regional, and municipal levels has effectively been concentrated in the hands of a single political force – the left-wing Morena party [to which President Sheinbaum belongs. – Ed.]. As a result, people feel that there is almost no real political alternative,' the human rights defender tells 'Novaya-Europe.' 'At the same time, in small towns and rural areas, people better understand how the system actually works. Formally, parties change, but in practice, the same political groups remain in power – just under different guises. This fosters deep distrust of Morena.' Rafael Barajas Valeszuela is convinced that the growing sense of insecurity is primarily a consequence of the current political system, where the boundaries between state institutions and informal power networks are maximally blurred. Moreover, according to the interviewee of 'Novaya-Europe,' this is largely unrelated to the actual activity of criminal groups: 'Drug cartels, as a rule, operate secretly and avoid unnecessary attention. They are interested in stability and predictability, not chaos. There are isolated regions where open armed struggle is indeed taking place (e.g., Michoacán), but these can be considered exceptions. In most other states – Sinaloa, Sonora, and so on – daily life does not look the way it is often presented from abroad.' According to the expert, the situation in Mexico City – a city that authorities are trying to turn into a 'showcase of their policies' – is very different from the rest of the country: 'A huge number of surveillance cameras are installed there; the streets are literally completely monitored. It is becoming increasingly difficult to commit a crime and go unpunished there. But outside the capital, according to Barajas Valeszuela, 'much remains the same as under previous right-wing governments': 'The 'law of the strongest' operates; power belongs to the most ruthless, aggressive, and corrupt. In Mexico, this is called the 'law of the jungle'.' Public Security Department officers in Guadalajara, Mexico, May 26, 2026. Photo: Francisco Guasco / EPA. Alarming Signals Jalisco state, where part of the World Cup games will be held, is a telling example in terms of security perception. According to an April poll by INEGI, 90.2% of Guadalajara residents, where numerous tourists are already arriving, feel endangered. In December 2025, this figure was 79.2%. Such a rapid increase in anxiety is not seen anywhere else in the country. Jalisco made headlines in February – and not for sporting reasons. Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, nicknamed El Mencho, the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), was eliminated. This was the most serious blow to the Mexican drug trade in recent years. Following El Mencho's death, an unprecedented wave of violence swept the country, affecting at least 20 out of 32 states. The cartel, operating in about forty countries worldwide, demonstratively showed the state what it was capable of. The epicenter was CJNG's stronghold – Jalisco state, including Guadalajara. Afterward, authorities launched a hunt for possible successors: on April 27, in the neighboring state of Nayarit, one of the deceased leader's associates, Audias Flores Silva, nicknamed El Jardinero, was arrested. The cartel is undergoing a transition period, which is a significant risk factor, doing nothing to stabilize the situation. Meanwhile, another incident proved far more damaging to the authorities' reputation. On April 20, 2026, at the Teotihuacan archaeological site – a UNESCO World Heritage site and one of the country's main attractions – an armed man climbed to the top of one of the ancient pyramids and opened indiscriminate fire. A Canadian tourist was killed, and 14 other foreigners – from the USA, Colombia, Brazil, Russia, the Netherlands, and Canada – were injured. The shooter committed suicide. The incident had no connection to cartels: the shooter was a loner inspired by the 1999 Columbine High School massacre in the US. This allowed President Sheinbaum to emphasize the 'isolated nature' of the event. 'You can be sure that you are coming to a safe place,' she told future tourists. However, analysts interpreted the event differently. 'Such events reinforce Mexico's negative image regarding security and undermine the narrative that President Sheinbaum is trying to build around the idea that Mexico is a safe country,' stated security analyst David Saucedo in an interview with AP. 'It seems that the Mexican authorities are unable to ensure the safety of guests arriving for the World Cup,' he added on NTN24. Mexican National Guard officers patrol the Teotihuacan archaeological zone in San Juan Teotihuacan on April 22, 2026, after an armed man shot and killed a Canadian tourist and injured at least 13 others on April 20. Photo: Mario Guzman / EPA. Following the shooting, the Canadian government updated its travel advisories, urging extreme caution and effectively advising against travel. For the organizers, the incident was a 'cold shower' also because Teotihuacan was considered one of the key locations for the cultural program that always accompanies such sporting events. Just a few days before the shooting, authorities were discussing the possibility of launching a large-scale night light show near the pyramids, which would attract hundreds of tourists daily. Operation for 99,000 People After the shooting in Teotihuacan, Public Security Minister Omar García Harfuch ordered an immediate increase in the National Guard's presence not only at stadiums but also at all archaeological sites and other tourist spots in the country. These measures were incorporated into 'Plan Kukulkan' (named after one of the supreme deities in Maya mythology) – a large-scale security program for the World Cup. The plan was presented on March 6 at a military base in Zapopan, a suburb of Guadalajara. The symbolism of the location was evident: Zapopan itself became the epicenter of the wave of violence following El Mencho's elimination. It was announced that 99,338 people would be involved in ensuring security. These include 20,000 servicemen from the Army, Air Force, and National Guard; 55,000 federal police and Public Security Secretariat officers; and about 24,000 state police and certified private security personnel. Establishing effective interaction among them is a complex task. Forces are unevenly distributed: the main burden falls on Mexico City (52.8 thousand), followed by Guadalajara (17.3 thousand) and Monterrey (15.1 thousand). Additionally, seven special operational groups have been created to ensure security in cities hosting team training camps. The fundamental principle of the plan is concentric security rings around each strategic facility. There are four around the stadium in Mexico City. The first ring includes the National Guard with canine units, as well as military snipers. The second involves the capital's police, the Ministry of Security's operational intelligence system, and biometric access control. The third comprises tactical response forces under military command, as well as aerial surveillance using helicopters and drones. The fourth is a strategic reserve of armed forces and continuous threat monitoring. A Mexican National Guard officer stands guard at the Akron Stadium in Guadalajara, March 26, 2026. Photo: Francisco Guasco / EPA. Elements of 'Plan Kukulkan' Air Shield: A system for controlling airspace at various altitudes, involving 24 aircraft, including long-range radar detection planes, F-5 interceptors, T-6+ Texan II trainers, helicopters, and drones. Drone Countermeasures: Mobile and semi-stationary European-made systems. Portable systems have a range of up to 2 km and can disrupt communication between a drone and its operator in 45 seconds. Intelligent Video Surveillance: The C5 system in Mexico City integrates 113,814 cameras, covering 93% of the capital's territory. Guadalajara has over 2,000 specialized cameras. AI algorithms enable facial recognition in crowds and automatic tracking of suspicious behavior, including identifying ticket scalpers. Cybersecurity: A specialized unit monitors the dark web and closed forums to detect criminal group plans. According to intelligence, Mexican cartels actively use encrypted messengers – particularly the Threema app – for internal communication, requiring cyber units to use new technical interception methods. Transport Hubs: Mexico City Airport has 40 automated border control systems that speed up entry by 50%, X-ray screening systems, and 3,240 cameras with identity verification functions. Ground Vehicles and Robotics: A fleet of 2,500 military and civilian vehicles. In Monterrey, four-legged robot dogs equipped with sensors for detecting explosives and dangerous chemicals are involved in patrolling. Canine Units: 188 service dogs. In Guadalajara, there are 23 dog-handler teams focused on detecting explosives, 23 teams for drug detection, and 40 mounted patrols in Fan Fest zones. QBRNE Protocol: Before each match, Ministry of Defense specialists conduct checks according to the Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosives (QBRNE) defense protocol. Maritime Segment: The Navy Secretariat has allocated 12,241 personnel to ensure World Cup security. Naval units are deployed along the Gulf of Mexico coast and in strategic Pacific ports, tasked with intercepting arms, drug, and illegal migration traffic. 'Plan Kukulkan' is not just an internal Mexican operation. Active cooperation with the USA and Canada is carried out through the Trilateral Operational Center. American specialists have extensively consulted their Mexican counterparts and participated in a series of joint exercises unprecedented in the history of bilateral relations. The full spectrum of threats was practiced: armed attacks at stadiums and airports, hostage-taking of sports and diplomatic delegation members, as well as aircraft hijacking, chemical and nuclear incidents, and mass riots. The exercises involved, among others, FBI agents and Navy SEALs. The participation of the US in ensuring security on Mexican territory is remarkable in itself: for many years, Mexican authorities viewed the possibility of US law enforcement operating on their territory as an infringement of sovereignty. The World Cup has made possible what seemed politically unthinkable just a year ago. Mexican National Guard officers with service dogs at the international airport in Santa Lucia, March 17, 2026. Photo: Mario Guzman / EPA. Parallel Cartel Agenda Mexico knows how to mobilize resources for major events. It has previously organized the Pan American Games in Guadalajara in 2011, the G20 summit in Los Cabos in 2012, and the Central American and Caribbean Games in Veracruz in 2014. The authorities handled these tasks. The question is whether they can handle the World Cup – an event of incomparably larger scale. Hopes for success are fueled by the fact that, according to Mexican public security experts, organized crime in Mexico is unlikely to directly attack the tournament. A direct attack on foreign fans would provoke an immediate and harsh reaction from both Mexico City and Washington – which is disadvantageous for the group leaders. The experience of popular resort destinations like Cancun and Los Cabos shows that criminal groups try not to scare away tourists, as they profit from them themselves. Rafael Barajas Valeszuela is confident: 'Drug cartels are most interested in the championship passing peacefully and without incident. For them, it's primarily business: the more tourists who vacation, drink, and use drugs, the higher the profit. No businessman would harm their own business.' Meanwhile, outside the tourist zones, the struggle for territory between numerous cartels will continue as usual. And this is the main drawback of 'Plan Kukulkan.' All resources will be concentrated in strictly defined 'sterile zones': stadiums, airports, hotels, tourist sites. This concentration of forces inevitably comes at the expense of reduced security presence in other regions. In other words, the safety of tourists will largely be ensured at the expense of the safety of local residents. This is precisely what happened during other major sporting events in areas with challenging security situations: South Africa (2010 FIFA World Cup) and Brazil (2014 World Cup; 2016 Olympic Games). Widespread Protests As with those sporting celebrations, the preparations for the 2026 World Cup have not been without scandals. In Mexico City, mothers of missing persons – of whom there are about 134,000 nationwide, roughly twice the capacity of the main stadium – held a protest. They carried signs reading 'Don't play with our pain' and 'Mexico – World Champion of Disappearances.' In Guadalajara, the situation was exacerbated by large-scale construction work around the stadium. Activists and human rights defenders claim that land where secret graves of drug cartel victims were located was allocated for World Cup construction. 'For the families of the missing, this stadium is almost unrelated to sports, fun, and the football atmosphere. The area around it has become a symbol of excavations, exhumations, mass graves, and the agonizing uncertainty about the fate of loved ones,' stated human rights defenders from Human Rights Watch, adding, 'Activist search groups have reported nearly two dozen secret burials in the past year and discovered at least 500 bags of human remains – all within 20 km of the stadium. On an adjacent plot of land in Las Águilas, another 270 bags were found.' Construction work has made it impossible to exhume the remains that were not found. Participants of mothers' movements searching for their missing relatives protest with signs at the Nemesio Díez Stadium in Toluca, Mexico, June 3, 2026. Photo: Felipe Gutiérrez / EPA. Meanwhile, residents of neighborhoods adjacent to the Azteca Stadium in Mexico City organized protests against 'forced gentrification.' The stadium renovation and the construction of a pedestrian route to it have led to water supply disruptions in residential areas. These two groups of activists have warned that they intend to hold protests during the tournament. They will also be joined by education workers, who called the government's decision to shorten the academic year by five weeks for the matches 'offensive.' However, protesting will not be easy: laws passed before the tournament allow authorities to restrict freedom of assembly within a two-kilometer radius of FIFA facilities. This effectively legalizes the clearing of streets of protesting groups. After the Final Whistle According to Rafael Barajas Valeszuela, 'Plan Kukulkan' is a standard set of security measures that any country must implement when hosting such a large-scale event. However, he adds, there is a persistent distrust in Mexico towards such initiatives: 'It is well known here that when the government announces a large-scale security operation, it is often accompanied by human rights violations: disappearances, abuses by security forces, looting, or exceeding authority.' As a result, according to the interviewee of 'Novaya-Europe,' 'part of society perceives armed patrols, checkpoints, and other measures as necessary protection, while another part sees them as a tool for controlling and suppressing civil liberties: restricting freedom of movement, expression, and the right to protest.' The human rights defender recalled that Mexico already has 'experience with authorities using similar measures in their own interests.' Before the 1968 Olympics, when the country was ruled by the right, the so-called Tlatelolco massacre occurred: students protested, and the authorities decided to suppress them by force, resulting in over 200 deaths. This remains a very sensitive topic for Mexicans. In the opinion of the interviewee of 'Novaya-Europe,' one can hope that after the football tournament concludes, authorities will gradually ease security measures, which 'will create a sense that the situation is under control.' 'Constant checkpoints, document checks, patrols on the streets, pressure on people – all this sooner or later causes irritation and tension, especially in huge metropolises like Mexico City or Guadalajara. People live there densely, in poverty, under constant stress due to lack of money. If you add a militarized state to this, the situation becomes completely unbearable,' notes Rafael Barajas Valeszuela. Jalisco state public security officers patrol by helicopter over Guadalajara, Mexico, May 26, 2026. Photo: Francisco Guasco / EPA. Some predictions about future developments can be made based on the experience of another Latin American country known for its high crime rate – Brazil. During the 2016 Olympics, authorities deployed 85,000 military and police personnel. At the height of the Games, it looked like an exemplary operation, although not without serious incidents: Amnesty International documented that during the Games themselves – from August 5 to 21 – police conducted constant operations in the favelas, during which at least eight people died. But when the troops left, Rio de Janeiro experienced a sharp surge in crime. And budget problems after the Olympics led to delays in police salary payments. Most importantly, as noted by Amnesty International, the country was left after the Olympics 'with an even more militarized public security system, focused on highly selective repression, excessive use of force, and police operations in favelas comparable to combat operations.' Researchers Bruno Cardoso and Dennis Pauschinger, in their academic work 'Authoritarian Heritage: Megasport Security, the Managerial-Militarized Model, and the Rise of the Far-Right in Brazil,' discuss the long-term consequences of authorities creating a new control system for the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics: with command centers, mass surveillance, close coordination of security forces, and a more militarized police. Formally, this was presented as modern and efficient security management. But in practice, according to the authors, the urban environment became militarized: the role of the army and police in civilian life increased. A fusion of neoliberalism and militarism emerged, which they call 'militarized managerialism.' The image of order imposed from above became politically attractive. And as a result, the authors claim, this wave propelled the far-right politician Jair Bolsonaro to the forefront, who won the presidential election in 2019. The Mexican government is already considering technological re-equipment as a crucial legacy of the World Cup. The system with tens of thousands of cameras and facial recognition algorithms will continue to operate even after fans have gone home. 'The country is approaching the 2026 World Cup amid a severe human rights crisis, and the real danger is that 'Plan Kukulkan' will strengthen social control mechanisms without strengthening the civil institutions that the country needs in the long term,' warns Gerardo Álvarez, a public policy analyst at México Unido Contra la Delincuencia A. C. ('Mexico United Against Crime'). 'If the tournament's legacy is only surveillance infrastructure and the reinforcement of the narrative of military effectiveness, Mexico will repeat Brazil's mistake without even acknowledging it.' The real benefit, he says, would be in strengthening the independence of courts, prosecutors' offices, and various human rights mechanisms. Everything indicates that Mexico will manage to ensure security within the 'sterile zones.' South Africa and Brazil have already proven this: by concentrating resources, it is possible to create an island of order even in a sea of instability. The matches will take place. Fans will return home happy. The question is not whether Mexico can host the championship, but what it will gain afterward. The country, embroiled in cartel conflicts, has a chance to prove that the Brazilian scenario is not predetermined.