An Episode of the Eternal War or the Demise of the Iranian Theocracy The article explores the escalating conflict in the Middle East, focusing on the strategic implications for Iran, Israel, and the United States, and considers the potential for a costly war with no clear winners. It delves into the motivations behind the attacks, the internal dynamics of the Iranian regime, and the unpredictable nature of leadership, particularly in the context of the Trump administration. The piece concludes by examining the unachievable goals of the conflict and the potential for Iran to inflict significant material and human costs, despite its inability to achieve outright victory.

• Iran cannot achieve victory against Israel or the US but can make the war prohibitively expensive.
• US Secretary of State Mark Rubio’s justification for attacking Iran is questioned for its logical flaws, with the US ally initiating the attack.
• Recent Iranian attacks have targeted civilian infrastructure in multiple countries, a departure from previous, more symbolic actions.
• Gulf states are hesitant to join the war due to potential backlash but are pressured by Iranian attacks on their territory and economies.
• The article discusses the potential succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the challenges facing the Iranian regime under combined military and internal pressure.
• The possibility of the US and Israel aiming to destabilize Iran through ethnic conflict or by installing agents in leadership positions is explored.
• The article highlights the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions, contrasting them with traditional US strategy.
• The potential economic impact, particularly on oil prices, and the resource sustainability of prolonged conflict are considered.
• Analysts suggest that the US and Israel may have started the war with unclear objectives and weak international backing.
• The article questions whether Israel’s goal is regime change or to provoke internal conflict to weaken Iran.