US stock futures fell sharply early Monday, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.8%, S&P 500 futures declining 0.5%, and Dow futures falling 0.2%. Investors are bracing for a turbulent start to February after last week’s historic precious metals crash triggered cascading margin calls across global markets.

Gold continued sliding Monday morning in Asian trading, falling an additional 3.3% to $4,703 per ounce. That extends the peak to trough decline to 16% from Thursday’s all-time high of $5,594. Bitcoin crashed below $80,000 over the weekend, falling 8% Saturday to around $78,160, marking its lowest level since April 2025. ​

The selloff isn’t stopping. It’s spreading.

India’s Market Crash: When Tax Policy Triggers Panic India’s stock market crashed Sunday in a special Budget session after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman increased Securities Transaction Tax on futures trading from 0.02% to 0.05% and on options to 0.15%. That triggered panic selling among retail traders who dominate India’s derivatives markets.

Shares of BSE, Angel One, and Groww tanked up to 10% immediately after the announcement. The move doubles down on efforts to curb speculative activity after Budget 2024 already raised STT by 60%. The total volume of transactions in options and futures is more than 500 times India’s GDP. India’s GDP is 300 lakh crore rupees. Volume for options and futures exceeds 1.5 lakh crore rupees.

That’s not investing. That’s gambling with leverage. The government is explicitly trying to kill the trade by making transaction costs prohibitive. With the new rates, STT hits high-frequency traders the hardest because it applies on every single trade. Day trades account for 30% of futures contracts and 46% of options contracts. Those traders just saw their costs more than double.

The immediate consequence is volume collapse. When transaction taxes rise, liquidity dries up. India’s derivatives market exploded over the past two years as retail participation surged. That participation is about to reverse violently as traders realize their strategies are no longer profitable after taxes. ​

The Nifty fell 0.95% Friday before the Budget announcement, extending weekly losses past 3% as foreign selling continued. Sunday’s tax hike will accelerate that selling. Retail traders who were buying every dip will stop. Market makers who provided liquidity will widen spreads to compensate for higher costs. Volatility will spike as liquidity disappears. ​​

Earnings Season Peak Arrives More than half of the S&P 500’s companies report earnings this week, making it the busiest period of Q4 2025 reporting season with key reports from Alphabet, Amazon, and over 200 other companies. This comes after last week’s chaos where Apple delivered record revenue but shares rose only modestly, and Microsoft cratered 10% despite beating estimates.

The pattern from last week is clear. Good news doesn’t produce rallies. Beating estimates triggers selloffs. Investors are pricing in perfection and punishing anything less. Over 200 companies reporting in a week means multiple opportunities for disappointment.

If earnings broadly beat but stocks fail to rally, that confirms market exhaustion. If earnings miss, selling will accelerate. Either way, the setup is fragile. Futures down 0.5% to 0.8% Monday morning before markets even open signals nervousness.

Dollar Strength and What It Means The dollar maintained Friday’s gains early Monday as Treasury Secretary Bessent’s strong dollar policy declaration continued reversing January’s weakness. The currency is holding near its best levels since late January.

That strength is killing commodities. Gold down another 3.3% Monday. Silver rebounded 1.6% to $85.98 but remains 29% below Thursday’s record high of $121.64. Bitcoin below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025.

A strong dollar makes commodities more expensive for foreign buyers and reduces the need to hedge currency debasement. But that strength comes from policy statements, not fundamentals. Core PCE inflation sits at 2.8%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Trump’s tariffs add inflationary pressure. Kevin Warsh is expected to cut rates once confirmed.

The consequence is a disconnect between dollar strength driven by rhetoric and underlying fundamentals that point to weakness. If Warsh cuts rates while inflation runs hot and tariffs raise costs, the dollar’s Friday surge will reverse. Commodities will bottom and rally. But timing that reversal is impossible when policy is driven by conflicting statements rather than consistent strategy.

Monday’s futures decline, gold’s continued slide, India’s tax-induced crash, Indonesia’s MSCI threat, and manufacturing contraction all point to the same conclusion. Last week’s precious metals crash wasn’t an isolated event. It was the start of a broader risk-off move that’s spreading across asset classes and geographies.

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