Thursday brought the second consecutive day of gains as investors extended the rebound from Trump’s Greenland tariff reversal, though Intel’s disappointing guidance after hours threatened to derail momentum.

Broad Market Strength The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 306 points or 0.63% to 49,384, the S&P 500 added 0.55% to 6,913, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.91% to 23,436
The Russell 2000 small cap index jumped 1.2% to hit another record close as risk appetite returned ​

The S&P 500 closed the gap that opened at the start of the week around 6,900, solidifying a position above October gap resistance turned support around 6,830. The two day rally erased Tuesday’s brutal selloff when the Dow plunged 870 points and the S&P 500 fell 2.1% to 6,797 following Trump’s Greenland tariff threats against eight European NATO allies. ​ Intel’s Guidance Disaster Intel Corporation shares tumbled more than 12% to 13% after hours despite beating Q4 estimates, because management guided Q1 2026 revenue well below consensus at $11.7 to $12.7 billion versus the street’s expectation of $12.5 to $13.6 billion

Intel reported strong Q4 2025 results but Q1 2026 guidance shocked investors. Intel projected revenue of $11.7 to $12.7 billion with a midpoint of $12.2 billion, significantly below the $12.5 billion consensus. More critically, Intel projected adjusted EPS to be at breakeven ($0.00), a stark contrast to the $0.05 profit per share expected by Wall Street.

CFO Dave Zinsner explained: “As we enter 2026, our buffer inventory is depleted and the mix shift in wafers towards servers, which began in Q3, will not come out of fab until late Q1”. The company cited chip supply constraints expected to be at their lowest level in Q1. ​ Intel’s stock fell from the $54.25 to $54.32 closing price to around $47 after hours, a drop of over 12%. This came after the stock had surged 11% Wednesday in anticipation of positive results.

Gold Breaks $4,900 Gold hit fresh records above $4,900 per ounce with Goldman Sachs raising its December 2026 target to $5,400 Spot gold topped $4,900 as geopolitical tension and Fed rate cut bets drove diversification into precious metals. ​

Goldman’s team noted that private investors diversifying into gold is the main driver shifting their forecast higher. Silver and platinum are also joining the rally with fresh record highs. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast gold could reach between $4,900 and $6,000.

The gold surge continued despite equity markets rallying, showing persistent safe haven demand even as the immediate Greenland crisis eased. Investors remain concerned about policy volatility and US credibility following the tariff whipsaw.

Oil Prices Collapse Oil prices fell sharply with Brent crude down 1.8% to $64.06 and WTI dropping 2.1% to $59.36 as geopolitical risk premium evaporated . The oil selloff came as Trump’s tariff reversal and “I won’t use force” pledge regarding Greenland removed immediate conflict risk.

Lower oil prices benefit consumers and reduce inflation pressures, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility on rate policy. But the sharp decline also signals weaker economic growth expectations if demand is softening.

Bank of Japan Holds Steady The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, avoiding further disruption to global bond markets. Japan’s central bank elevated its economic growth projections while maintaining its primary policy rate.

The BOJ revised its growth forecast for the fiscal year concluding in March 2026, increasing it to 0.9% from the previous estimate of 0.7% made in October 2025. The GDP growth outlook for the 2026 fiscal year was adjusted upward to 1% from 0.7%. ​

In a divided 8 to 1 vote, the central bank opted to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged following a hike to its highest level in three decades last December. This decision comes ahead of snap elections scheduled for February 8, which may encourage Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to enhance her support for monetary easing and fiscal measures. ​

The BOJ rate hold is significant because previous rate hikes in 2024 and December 2025 triggered global bond market volatility. Holding steady in January provided stability during the Greenland crisis turbulence.

Strong US Economic Data Strong US economic data showed third quarter GDP revised up to 4.4% from 4.3% and weekly jobless claims falling to 200,000, below expectations. The data underscored the resilience of the US economy despite geopolitical uncertainty.

Robust growth and low unemployment give the Federal Reserve less urgency to cut rates aggressively. Investors await Friday’s PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred measure, with core PCE expected around 2.76% year over year

If core PCE comes in at 2.76%, that’s still well above the Fed’s 2% target. Combined with 4.4% GDP growth and 200,000 jobless claims, the data argues for patience on rate cuts. This could pressure equities if investors were expecting aggressive Fed easing.

The Broader Picture Markets completed a dramatic two day recovery from Tuesday’s selloff. The S&P 500 fell 2.1% Tuesday on Greenland tariff threats, then rallied 1.2% Wednesday and 0.55% Thursday to reclaim 6,900 and push back into positive territory for 2026.

But Intel’s 12% after hours collapse on weak Q1 guidance threatens to derail Friday’s session. Intel is a Dow component and a bellwether for semiconductor demand. If supply constraints are forcing Intel to guide revenue down 15% quarter over quarter from $13.7 billion to $12.2 billion at the midpoint, that signals broader chip industry weakness.

Gold at $4,900 despite the equity rally shows lingering concerns. The Australian dollar surging 10% against the greenback in a year reflects dollar weakness amid questions about US policy credibility. Oil collapsing below $60 WTI suggests demand concerns despite strong GDP.

Friday brings the PCE inflation test. If core PCE exceeds 2.76%, it argues against Fed rate cuts. If Intel’s after hours selloff spreads to semiconductors broadly, tech could drag markets lower despite two days of gains.

The Greenland crisis eased but didn’t disappear. Trump secured a vague “framework” with NATO that Denmark and Greenland say they weren’t party to. The 10% tariffs were suspended, not canceled. The fundamental tension remains unresolved.

Markets rallied on relief, not resolution. Intel’s guidance disaster shows corporate fundamentals still matter. Friday tests whether the rally has legs or if reality reasserts itself.

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