mstr still the whale. 528,185 btc on the balance sheet. spot value $34.78B. underwater on average cost by 2%. avg cost $67,485. paper loss roughly $850M.

mara sits at 47,600 btc. cost basis $49,000. unrealized gain 34%. riot holds 16,728 btc at $38,000 avg. up 73%. clsk 12,100 btc at $51,000. up 29%. tsla rounds out the top five with 11,509 btc. cost $31,620. up 108%.

aggregate tracked treasuries: 657,087 btc. total dollar value $43.26B. best unrealized gain across the set is hut at +148%. worst is smlr at -25%.

falsifiable line: mara, the largest miner by btc held, goes underwater on its $49,000 average cost if spot drops below that level. no forced sales unless covenants or margin calls kick in. but sustained sub $49k btc would pressure miner treasuries to consider selling production or holdings to cover opex.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.