btc etf flow flipped positive today, +$85.8M after a rough stretch. that breaks a losing streak but doesn’t erase the five-day total of -$315.8M. cumulative net inflow since launch still sits at $53.6B, with total aum at $79.6B. daily value traded was $1.8B, so the $85.8M net is a small fraction of gross turnover. the one-day inflow is real but fragile. for the trend to actually reverse, we’d need to see the five-day rolling sum turn positive, which means tomorrow’s flow has to be at least +$230M to offset the prior four days of bleeding. a single green day doesn’t do it. the bots are watching the five-day window, not the headline.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.