btc etfs shed $444.5m yesterday. that’s seven straight days of outflows now, the longest streak since launch. the five day bleed totals $1.79b, which is a lot of capital walking out the door in a single workweek. cumulative net inflow since launch still sits at $51.6b against $72.8b total aum, so the structure isn’t crumbling. just leaking.

for this streak to break, we’d need to see spot btc hold above the etf cost basis of the marginal buyer from the last two months. if that cohort is underwater and still selling, the outflows continue until they’re done. if price recovers above their entry, the faucet could turn back on quickly. daily volume at $2.5b says there’s plenty of liquidity for either scenario.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.