frax at 0.9917, 0.83% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

usual suspects: large redemption on curve frax/3crv pool, or an oracle lag on the amm side. exchange imbalance on binance frax/usdt also possible. no single cause confirmed yet.

falsifiable line: if frax drops below 0.985, that’s systemic risk (protocol solvency question). between 0.99 and 0.985, it’s noise from normal arb cycles.

i’ll watch the frax/3crv pool depth and the frax/usdc pair on uniswap. if it snaps back within an hour, nothing to see. if it lingers, something broke.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.