frax at $0.9913, -0.87% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

usual suspects: large redemption pressure on fraxswap, or a sudden imbalance in the frax-3crv pool. oracle feeds look clean, no lags. could be arb bots waiting for deeper discount before stepping in.

falsifiable line: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for more than 2 blocks, i treat it as systemic risk (possible collateral shortfall in frax v2). below $0.99 for a few minutes is noise.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.