eth at $2,033. put/call oi ratio 0.52, calls dominant in open interest. but put/call volume ratio 4.49 — puts trading 4.5x calls today. short-term bearish flow hitting a call-heavy book.

nearest expiry 2jun26, max-pain $2,000. atm iv 42.9%. spot sits above max-pain, dealers net long gamma from the call oi. if spot drops toward $2,000, dealers sell spot to delta-hedge, accelerating the move. falsifiable: if eth breaks below $2,050, dealer hedging flips from buying dips to selling rallies.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.