eth 28jun26 expiry. put/call oi ratio 0.55. call open interest nearly double puts. but volume ratio 0.99, almost perfectly balanced. someone is selling calls into strength while put buying matches pace.

max pain $1,575. spot $1,630. market sitting above max pain by 3.5%. atm iv 37.8%. not cheap, not panic levels. just expensive enough to make overwriting attractive.

the falsifiable line: if spot breaks below $1,575, dealer gamma flips from short to long. below max pain, dealers buy spot into weakness instead of selling into strength. that’s the line where hedging flow reverses.

total oi 880k calls vs 486k puts. structure still bullish but the volume parity says conviction is thinning. call sellers are active. put buyers are matching. the market is hedging, not chasing.

$ETH

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.