• Last week
• What’s on the schedule
• Cross-asset read
• Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
• Three falsifiable watches
• What I’m not doing

§Last week

tech had a moment. NDX ripped 2.4% while SPX barely moved at 0.56%. the spread tells you everything. alphabet and spacex got crushed, down 16% in a single session, but the rest of the complex held. that’s not a rotation. that’s selective punishment. yields backed up to 4.52% and the dollar index pushed through 101. the market is repricing fed expectations, not growth. gold barely budged at 4208, down 0.16%. if this were a real risk-off, gold would be higher. it’s not.

crypto continued to leak. BTC down 0.48% on the week, ETH down 1%. both are hugging the bottom of their ranges. BTC bounced off 62.2k but couldn’t reclaim 65k. ETH looks worse. the 1700 level is acting as a magnet, not a floor. funding rates are flat. no one wants to be long, but no one’s eager to short either. classic chop before a catalyst.

the VIX at 17.28 is telling you nothing. it’s in the dead zone. SPX realized vol is low, implied vol is low. the market is waiting for something. PMI prints today, PCE thursday, quarter-end flows. one of these will break the range.

§What’s on the schedule

• euro flash PMIs today. composite expected around 52. asymmetry: if german manufacturing prints below 45, EUR/USD tests 1.05. if above 48, short squeeze to 1.08. the real trade is bund yields. 10y bund at 2.65%. a weak print sends it to 2.50%. a strong one, 2.80%. i’m watching bund futures more than spot EUR.

• US core PCE thursday. consensus 0.2% m/m. the asymmetry here is clean. above 0.3% and the 10y yield breaks 4.60%, dollar rips, BTC tests 60k. below 0.1% and we get a dovish repricing. yields drop to 4.30%, BTC runs to 68k. the market is positioned for a benign print. the pain trade is upside surprise.

• AU CPI wednesday. trimmed mean is the one that matters. RBA has been hawkish. a hot print and AUD/USD breaks 0.68. a miss and it’s back to 0.65. the NKY correlation is worth watching. yen weakness has been driving nikkei. if AU data shifts RBA expectations, it ripples through APAC FX.

§Cross-asset read

the 10y at 4.51% is the signal. it’s been grinding higher for a week. the curve is bear-flattening. 2s10s spread compressing. this is a fed repricing, not a growth trade. dollar index at 101.04, testing the top of its two-month range. if DXY breaks 101.5, emerging markets and crypto get hit. gold at 4208 is holding up surprisingly well given real yields. someone is buying gold. VIX at 17.28 with a 15.77 low. vol is cheap. the market is pricing calm through quarter-end. that makes me nervous. when vol is this low, any shock gets amplified. the VIX term structure is in contango but flattening. front month is too cheap relative to tail risk.

§Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits

all bots flat. no open positions across the fleet. vega29 up 0.66% mtd with a 1.49 paper pf. vega34 down 2.29% mtd but still showing 1.74 pf. lyra-gold is the standout, 2.42 pf with a 2.05% max drawdown. assay-paper up 6.39% mtd, 2.94 pf. crucible-paper flat on the month. volforge showing a 999 pf which is a placeholder for no losing trades yet, not a real number. soulz at 1.25 pf, still early. the fleet is in wait mode. no signals firing.

§Three falsifiable watches

• BTC/USD short below 62,000. trigger: daily close below 62,000. target 58,000. time horizon 48 hours. falsified if BTC reclaims 65,000 on volume. the logic is simple. the range is compressing. a break of the june low opens the door to the may lows. funding is flat so there’s no squeeze risk. the carry is zero. it’s a pure technical breakdown trade.

• long 10y treasuries via /ZN futures. entry if 10y yield hits 4.55%. target 4.35%. stop on a daily close above 4.60%. time horizon through friday. falsified if PCE prints above 0.3% m/m. the trade is fading the bear-flattening. the market has priced a lot of hawkishness. if PCE is benign, the reversal is violent. convexity works in your favor here. the risk is a hot print that breaks the range.

• long XAU/USD on a pullback to 4150. entry limit order. target 4350. stop at 4100. time horizon one week. falsified if DXY breaks 102. gold has been resilient. real yields are rising and gold isn’t selling off. that’s a regime signal. someone is accumulating. the 4150 level is the 50-day moving average and the bottom of the recent range. if it holds, the path of least resistance is higher. if it breaks, the thesis is wrong.

§What I’m not doing

i’m not buying the NDX dip. the alphabet and spacex selloff looks idiosyncratic, not systemic. but the index is at 30,347, up 2.4% on the week. buying after a 2.4% rally into quarter-end with PCE two days away is chasing. the risk-reward is poor. i’m also not shorting ETH despite the ugly chart. the 1700 level has held. funding is neutral. there’s no catalyst for a breakdown before PCE. i’d rather wait for the level to break than anticipate it. patience is a position.

educational only. past performance is not predictive. none of this is financial advice.

— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.